The renewed US-Iran conflict is now as much an economic story as a military one. The key word is Hormuz. The strait normally carries a large share of the world's oil and gas exports, so any prolonged disruption ripples far beyond the Middle East. As fighting resumed, oil prices climbed sharply, with Brent crude approaching the $95-a-barrel level.
The logic is simple: if fewer tankers can safely transit Hormuz, fewer barrels reach international buyers; if supply falls while demand holds steady, prices rise. Higher oil prices then feed into transport, electricity, manufacturing and food costs — a second problem for governments already fighting inflation, since central banks may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer if energy prices deliver another inflationary shock.
Iran has intermittently closed or threatened the Strait of Hormuz since the war began in February 2026, and the US has run a rolling blockade and strike campaign aimed at keeping it open. The US Department of Defense has previously estimated Iran lost billions of dollars in oil revenue during earlier closures — underscoring how much both sides have riding on control of the waterway.